A 2024 Forecast
HAPPY NEW YEAR!!! Now, what does that mean for Orange County real estate?
First, let us look back at what happened in 2023 in terms of inventory, demand, luxury properties, and the Expected Market Time. The inventory remained extremely low all year and did not eclipse January levels.
The year started with an active inventory of 2,431 homes, the second lowest level to start a year since tracking began in 2004, only behind 2022’s 954 anemic start. The average start before the pandemic was 4,500 homes, a revealing 85% higher. A lack of available homes to purchase has been the mantra for the housing market since the pandemic hit nearly four years ago. After reaching 2,536 homes in mid-January, the inventory did not rise until the end of April after dropping to 2,053, down 19%.
It appeared that Orange County was going to hit its peak at the beginning of August at 2,475 homes; but, with rates stubbornly remaining above 7% since July and even eclipsing 8% in October, the peak was not reached until the start of November at 2,496 homes, growing by 21% since April. The 3-year average peak before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 6,959 homes, 179% higher than this year. From November through year’s end, the number of available homes decreased to 1,862, an unprecedented low level only surpassed by the end of 2021’s 1,072 level. The end to 2023 was 58% below the 3-year average end to December of 4,479.
Excerpt taken from an article by Steven Thomas.
