Orange County Housing Report: Sluggish

Brian Bogs Real Estate Leave a Comment

Due to fewer pending sales, the overall housing market is not as hot as it used to be.

Pending Activity: Housing has officially been sluggish in Orange County since April 2018 and it is not changing anytime soon.

There are some mountain roads that are extremely steep. In trying to ascend it behind the wheel of a car, often the pedal is all the way to the floorboard. The engine revs loudly and the car sluggishly makes its way to the top. You want your car to zoom up the mountain, but it’s out of your control. It takes time. Similarly, the housing market has been moving along sluggishly since the spring of last year. In April 2018, demand (the last 30-days of pending sales) was off 11% compared to April 2017. By July 2018, it was off by 13%. As the year continued to unfold, muted demand became the new normal. After hearing how slow the market had become in 2018, many homeowners eagerly waited for 2019’s Spring Market. Yet, muted demand was not just a blip on the housing radar screen in 2018. Instead, sluggish demand had been a trend that continued to this day. There are many experts and plenty of media reports that are beginning to talk about a robust second half to 2019. They point to the tremendous drop in interest rates as a catalyst to a sharp increase in buyer demand. Their thinking is that rates have dropped more than a full percentage point since last November, which has improved affordability dramatically. They are correct; affordability has improved considerably. The payment for a $650,000 mortgage has dropped from $3,489 per month at 5% back in November, to $3,103 per month at 4% today. That’s a savings of $386 per month or $4,632 per year.

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Brian Bogs