Orange County Housing Report:

A BALANCED MARKET

H O M E V A L U E S I N O R A N G E C O U N T Y A R E U P O N L Y 1 . 2 %

O V E R T H E P A S T Y E A R .

Home values rose in 2023 despite much higher mortgage rates. The very low demand (1,560 pending sales in July) was matched by a chronically low supply of available homes (2,276 in July). In 2024, demand remained at 2023’s very low levels (1,624 pending sales in July), yet the increase in the inventory (3,052 in July) was not enough to stop the rise in values. In 2025, low demand persisted (1,565 pending sales), and the inventory finally rose enough (4,817 in July) to stall home price appreciation. The additional supply tilted the scale away from a seller’s market. The scale is now fairly balanced, not really favoring sellers or buyers. It has reached a plateau. Demand is currently at 1,558, nearly identical to last year. The supply of available homes is 4,697 today, down 120, or 3%, from a year ago. That’s not much of a difference.

Looking at home values in Orange County monthly shows a bit more volatility. In 2025, they were up from January through March, turned negative from April through September, and then were positive to close out the year. Overall, they were flat, changing only slightly from month to month. This year, home values have been positive for the first five months, up 0.5% in January and February, 0.4% in March, 0.1% in April, and only 0.06% in May. From here, it looks as if values will remain flat overall in 2026.

Homeowners continue to “hunker down” in their homes, unwilling to move because of their current, underlying, locked-in, low fixed-rate mortgage. This trend has been easing from the lows established in 2023. Through June, 15,943 homes were placed on the market in Orange County, 6,197 fewer than the 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019), 28% less. In 2025, 16,622 homes entered the market (4% more), compared with 14,386 in 2024 (10% fewer) and 12,346 in 2023 (23% fewer). Slightly fewer homes have been coming to market this year than last.

Excerpt from Stephen Thomas OC Housing